DaRon Holmes II has a decision to make. Well, he has a series of decisions to make actually. The first one is easy - at some point between now and the early entry deadline on April 23, Holmes will declare for the NBA Draft. After that, he will have to choose from these three options: The Draft, The Portal, The Return.
The Draft
DaRon Holmes II will enter his name in the 2023 NBA Draft. There’s no downside to doing so and it has no effect on his college eligibility. The decision Holmes faces is whether to remain in The Draft or withdraw before the May 31 deadline.
From the time he committed to Dayton, Holmes was widely expected to follow the Obi Toppin path - two years in red and blue, enter The Draft. Holmes’ individual performance has largely lived up to those aspirations, winning A10 Rookie of the Year, earning First Team All Conference honors, and leading the nation in dunks. While his Flyers didn’t achieve the team success Obi’s did, Holmes has been a mainstay in mock drafts. If he enters and stays in The Draft, he will be drafted - likely in the mid to late second round, but with the chance to move up based on combine and individual workout performance.
Should Holmes stay in The Draft? Maybe. If he returns to college basketball (regardless of where), he COULD raise his draft stock. The potential 2024 draft class is weak, he could show increased range on his jumper and hit a higher percentage from the line, perhaps he transfers up and produces the same numbers against better competition. For most players, the right time to enter The Draft is when you know you’ll be drafted. Returning can lead to increased scrutiny and sometimes attempting to raise your stock can mean trying to do things that aren’t in your or your team’s best interest - for Holmes this would likely mean shooting threes.
The truth is that Holmes is ready for The Draft because another season of college basketball won’t change who he is as an NBA prospect. Holmes is going to be a rotation big in the League for a long time because of his defense. The vast majority of NBA players are role players and he’s already mastered his NBA role as a switchable big who runs the floor and plays with energy. Even if Holmes went undrafted, his pedigree and potential would likely net him a Two-Way contract and a $500,000 salary.
The Portal
Another option for Holmes is doing what over 1,000 of his peers have done in the last week: entering The Portal. A popular trend this season has been to announce entering The Draft AND The Portal simultaneously. The advantage to doing both is getting feedback from the pros on what you need to work on and, if you do decide to stay in school, using that information to find the right situation to maximize your opportunity for improvement.
Transferring would undoubtedly be a difficult decision for Holmes. He handpicked Dayton as his college destination as part of a plan to fast track his development and, while the team results have not lived up to expectations and gotten him a showcase in March, Holmes’ individual accolades have been stellar and he is beloved at UD.
Still, the appeal of major conference college basketball via The Portal is real. Holmes would be an easy fit on any roster losing their own man in the middle because, while he carried Dayton’s offense for much of the year, his specialty is anchoring a defense. Add in promises of increased NIL money and exposure through better TV deals, and The Portal provides a pretty enticing package.
Will Holmes enter The Portal? He’ll certainly have the opportunity and, if he can get more than the $500,000 he would make on a Two-Way, the financial incentive. However, Holmes told the Dayton Daily News last year when similar overtures were being made:
“Chasing the money isn’t worth it,” he said. “I’d rather have the true love.
“Loyalty really does mean something to me.”
The Return
Which brings us to Holmes’ third and final option, The Return. While this is probably the least likely option at this point, it is an option nonetheless. The Draft and The Portal both offer the allure of fame and fortune, but those things can also be daunting to a 20 year old. Holmes is already the man at Dayton - his status on the floor and on campus are known quantities and there has to be comfort in that. While his individual role is secure, the rest of the roster is very much in flux and that uncertainty could make taking the leap to chase a childhood dream a lot easier.
Whatever Holmes ultimately decides - The Draft, The Portal, The Return, The Draft and The Portal, The Draft and The Return - he still has at least two months to ponder. While this is likely the most difficult decision of his life to this point, these are all pretty great options to have for a 20 year old. If I had to call it right now, my guess would be that DaRon Holmes II enters and hears his name called in the 2023 NBA Draft.